Ottawa Valley Post Dingers vs Champaign Champagne

3–13Final

Oct 27, 2026 · Pro Division · Nassau Coliseum

MVP NUTSACK6 · 7.3 performance rating

Champaign Champagne 13, Ottawa Valley Post Dingers 3 (regulation). This outcome represents a typical Pro Division scoreline—16 goals total against a division median of 13. The match served as a regular season contest between the Ottawa Valley Post Dingers, who entered with a 1-10 record, and Champaign Champagne, who arrived at 6-7.

The game reached its turning point in the third period, which ended under the Mercy Rule. During this decisive frame, Champaign Champagne added 5 goals while the Ottawa Valley Post Dingers failed to find the net, resulting in a final score of 3-13.

NUTSACK6 delivered a dominant performance, leading the way with 8 goals and 4 assists to earn a 7.27 perf rating. Beefus also had a notable night, recording 3 goals and 5 assists while reaching a major milestone by scoring his 100th goal of his Pro career.

Player of the Game: NUTSACK6

Ottawa Valley Post DingersvsChampaign Champagne

5Shots2429

16Saves142

4Faceoffs won1014

11Takeaways718

18Turnovers↓711

32Blocks1418

48Passes4290

0:47Possession1:182:05

Win probability

The model's chance of winning at each period break.Biggest swing: Champaign Champagne gained 24 points in period 2.

Win Probability Added

How much each player moved the chance of winning, in percentage points. Zero-sum: every point one player gained, somebody on the other side lost.

nutsack6 🍾away+23.08
Beefus 🍾away+11.79
AboveAverageJoeaway+9.99
LessThanDennishome−8.01
walitooohome−14.83
Dave.home−22.02

Signed percentage points · model fit on 335 period-log games. WPA needs a verified period log, so it only exists for the matches whose players uploaded one — most box scores have no WPA.

By period

Ottawa Valley Post DingersChampaign Champagne

1st

Possession

0:160:43

Shots: 17
Faceoffs won: 13
Blocks: 144

LessThanDennis, dave, Walster

AboveAverageJoe, Beefus, NUTSACK6

2nd

Possession

0:150:41

Shots: 311
Faceoffs won: 27
Blocks: 109

LessThanDennis, dave, Walster

AboveAverageJoe, Beefus, NUTSACK6

3rdMercy

Possession

0:160:41

Shots: 111
Faceoffs won: 14
Blocks: 85

LessThanDennis, dave, Walster

AboveAverageJoe, Beefus, NUTSACK6

APR is the Alto Performance Rating: 0 to 10, with 6.0 league average. Click any APR to see the working.

Ottawa Valley Post Dingers

Player	G	A	Pts	Shots	Saves	FOW	FOL	TK	TO	Blk	Passes	Poss	Pucker+	Off	Def
LessThanDennis	0	1	1	0	12	0	4	2	2	11	18	0:16	103	0.57	1.24
dave	2	1	3	2	1	1	7	6	6	10	15	0:18	66	1.00	0.91
Walster	1	1	2	3	3	3	3	3	10	11	15	0:13	50	0.75	0.99

Champaign Champagne

Player	G	A	Pts	Shots	Saves	FOW	FOL	TK	TO	Blk	Passes	Poss	Pucker+	Off	Def
Beefus	3	5	8	10	2	6	1	10	1	10	25	1:17	156	1.07	1.35
NUTSACK6	8	4	12	13	0	4	1	4	5	4	41	0:19	155	1.21	0.88
AboveAverageJoe	2	4	6	6	0	4	2	4	5	4	24	0:29	84	1.41	0.84

LessThanDennis Ottawa Valley Post Dingers

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR6.2

Period 1· 6.1

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.887	-0.204
Assists	0	0.79	0.92	0.19	-0.858	-0.163
Shots	0	1.87	1.59	0.09	-1.173	-0.106
Passes	5	7.87	3.4	0.08	-0.843	-0.067
Saves	4	0.99	1.43	0.19	2.104	0.4
Blocks	2	2.16	1.81	0.11	-0.087	-0.01
Takeaways	1	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.215	-0.024

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.174 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.74, then +0.35 saves → 6.1

Period 2· 6.3

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.887	-0.204
Assists	1	0.79	0.92	0.19	0.232	0.044
Shots	0	1.87	1.59	0.09	-1.173	-0.106
Passes	9	7.87	3.4	0.08	0.334	0.027
Saves	3	0.99	1.43	0.19	1.404	0.267
Blocks	4	2.16	1.81	0.11	1.017	0.112
Takeaways	1	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.215	-0.024

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.116 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.174, then +0.35 saves, −0.2 goals against → 6.3

Period 3· 6.2

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.887	-0.204
Assists	0	0.79	0.92	0.19	-0.858	-0.163
Shots	0	1.87	1.59	0.09	-1.173	-0.106
Passes	4	7.87	3.4	0.08	-1.137	-0.091
Saves	5	0.99	1.43	0.19	2.804	0.533
Blocks	5	2.16	1.81	0.11	1.57	0.173
Takeaways	0	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.848	-0.093

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.049 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.073, then +0.35 saves, −0.2 goals against → 6.2

Pucker+103

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	0.167	1.577	0.106	0.32	0.034
Shots	0	1.871	0	0.08	0
Saves	4	0.994	4.022	0.15	0.603
Blocks	3.667	2.158	1.699	0.07	0.119
Takeaways	0.667	1.341	0.497	0.12	0.06
Passes	6	7.866	0.763	0.08	0.061
Faceoff win rate	0	0.5	0	0.03	0

Σ 0.877 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 1.032 → ×100 = 103.15 → 103

Offensive0.57

Period 1· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.469	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Period 2· 1.24

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.25	0.108	0.4	0.745
Shooting %	0	0.469	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.111	0.1	0.4	0.444

Σ contribution = 1.237

Period 3· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.469	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Defensive1.24

Period 1· 1.30

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	4	0.994	1.995	0.3	0.599
Blocks	2	2.158	0.927	0.2	0.185
Takeaways	1	1.341	0.751	0.25	0.188
Goals conceded	2	2.634	1.307	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 1.299

Period 2· 1.24

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	3	0.994	1.965	0.3	0.59
Blocks	4	2.158	1.693	0.2	0.339
Takeaways	1	1.341	0.751	0.25	0.188
Goals conceded	6	2.634	0.491	0.25	0.123

Σ contribution = 1.24

Period 3· 1.17

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	5	0.994	1.999	0.3	0.6
Blocks	5	2.158	1.866	0.2	0.373
Takeaways	0	1.341	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	5	2.634	0.559	0.25	0.14

Σ contribution = 1.173

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

dave Ottawa Valley Post Dingers

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR5.7

Period 1· 6.5

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.88	0.99	0.23	0.125	0.029
Assists	0	0.79	0.92	0.19	-0.858	-0.163
Shots	1	1.87	1.59	0.09	-0.546	-0.049
Passes	3	7.87	3.4	0.08	-1.431	-0.114
Saves	0	0.99	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	7	2.16	1.81	0.11	2.674	0.294
Takeaways	3	1.34	1.58	0.11	1.049	0.115

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.021 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.969, then +0.3 blocks, +0.25 hot shooting → 6.5

Period 2· 5.9

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.88	0.99	0.23	0.125	0.029
Assists	1	0.79	0.92	0.19	0.232	0.044
Shots	1	1.87	1.59	0.09	-0.546	-0.049
Passes	5	7.87	3.4	0.08	-0.843	-0.067
Saves	1	0.99	1.43	0.19	0.004	0.001
Blocks	1	2.16	1.81	0.11	-0.639	-0.07
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.58	0.11	0.417	0.046

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.068 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.899, then +0.25 hot shooting, −0.2 goals against → 5.9

Period 3· 4.8

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.887	-0.204
Assists	0	0.79	0.92	0.19	-0.858	-0.163
Shots	0	1.87	1.59	0.09	-1.173	-0.106
Passes	7	7.87	3.4	0.08	-0.255	-0.02
Saves	0	0.99	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	2	2.16	1.81	0.11	-0.087	-0.01
Takeaways	1	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.215	-0.024

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.659 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.012, then −0.2 goals against → 4.8

Pucker+66

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	1	1.577	0.634	0.32	0.203
Shots	0.667	1.871	0.356	0.08	0.029
Saves	0.333	0.994	0.335	0.15	0.05
Blocks	3.333	2.158	1.545	0.07	0.108
Takeaways	2	1.341	1.492	0.12	0.179
Passes	5	7.866	0.636	0.08	0.051
Faceoff win rate	0.125	0.5	0.25	0.03	0.007

Σ 0.627 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 0.738 − 0.074 turnover penalty = 0.664 → ×100 = 66.37 → 66

Offensive1.00

Period 1· 0.92

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.125	0.108	0.4	0.46
Shooting %	1	0.469	0.2	0.362
Assists per pass	0	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.918

Period 2· 1.85

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.333	0.108	0.4	0.787
Shooting %	1	0.469	0.2	0.362
Assists per pass	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.705

Σ contribution = 1.855

Period 3· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.469	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Defensive0.91

Period 1· 1.26

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.994	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	7	2.158	1.978	0.2	0.396
Takeaways	3	1.341	1.845	0.25	0.461
Goals conceded	2	2.634	1.307	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 1.256

Period 2· 0.89

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.994	1.006	0.3	0.302
Blocks	1	2.158	0.51	0.2	0.102
Takeaways	2	1.341	1.456	0.25	0.364
Goals conceded	6	2.634	0.491	0.25	0.123

Σ contribution = 0.891

Period 3· 0.58

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.994	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	2	2.158	0.927	0.2	0.185
Takeaways	1	1.341	0.751	0.25	0.188
Goals conceded	5	2.634	0.559	0.25	0.14

Σ contribution = 0.585

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

Walster Ottawa Valley Post Dingers

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR5.2

Period 1· 5.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.887	-0.204
Assists	0	0.79	0.92	0.19	-0.858	-0.163
Shots	0	1.87	1.59	0.09	-1.173	-0.106
Passes	3	7.87	3.4	0.08	-1.431	-0.114
Saves	1	0.99	1.43	0.19	0.004	0.001
Blocks	5	2.16	1.81	0.11	1.57	0.173
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.58	0.11	0.417	0.046

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.368 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.448, nothing hit the bonus or penalty thresholds → 5.4

Period 2· 5.7

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.88	0.99	0.23	0.125	0.029
Assists	1	0.79	0.92	0.19	0.232	0.044
Shots	2	1.87	1.59	0.09	0.081	0.007
Passes	4	7.87	3.4	0.08	-1.137	-0.091
Saves	1	0.99	1.43	0.19	0.004	0.001
Blocks	5	2.16	1.81	0.11	1.57	0.173
Takeaways	1	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.215	-0.024

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.139 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.208, then −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 goals against → 5.7

Period 3· 4.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.887	-0.204
Assists	0	0.79	0.92	0.19	-0.858	-0.163
Shots	1	1.87	1.59	0.09	-0.546	-0.049
Passes	8	7.87	3.4	0.08	0.039	0.003
Saves	1	0.99	1.43	0.19	0.004	0.001
Blocks	1	2.16	1.81	0.11	-0.639	-0.07
Takeaways	0	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.848	-0.093

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.576 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.136, then −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 cold shooting, −0.2 goals against → 4.4

Pucker+50

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	0.667	1.577	0.423	0.32	0.135
Shots	1	1.871	0.534	0.08	0.043
Saves	1	0.994	1.006	0.15	0.151
Blocks	3.667	2.158	1.699	0.07	0.119
Takeaways	1	1.341	0.746	0.12	0.09
Passes	5	7.866	0.636	0.08	0.051
Faceoff win rate	0.5	0.5	1	0.03	0.03

Σ 0.618 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 0.727 − 0.224 turnover penalty = 0.503 → ×100 = 50.37 → 50

Offensive0.75

Period 1· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.469	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Period 2· 1.77

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.4	0.108	0.4	0.796
Shooting %	0.5	0.469	0.2	0.213
Assists per pass	0.25	0.1	0.4	0.762

Σ contribution = 1.772

Period 3· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.469	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Defensive0.99

Period 1· 1.37

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.994	1.006	0.3	0.302
Blocks	5	2.158	1.866	0.2	0.373
Takeaways	2	1.341	1.456	0.25	0.364
Goals conceded	2	2.634	1.307	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 1.366

Period 2· 0.99

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.994	1.006	0.3	0.302
Blocks	5	2.158	1.866	0.2	0.373
Takeaways	1	1.341	0.751	0.25	0.188
Goals conceded	6	2.634	0.491	0.25	0.123

Σ contribution = 0.986

Period 3· 0.60

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.994	1.006	0.3	0.302
Blocks	1	2.158	0.51	0.2	0.102
Takeaways	0	1.341	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	5	2.634	0.559	0.25	0.14

Σ contribution = 0.604

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

Beefus Champaign Champagne

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR6.7

Period 1· 5.6

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.88	0.99	0.23	0.125	0.029
Assists	0	0.79	0.92	0.19	-0.858	-0.163
Shots	3	1.87	1.59	0.09	0.708	0.064
Passes	10	7.87	3.4	0.08	0.628	0.05
Saves	0	0.99	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	2	2.16	1.81	0.11	-0.087	-0.01
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.58	0.11	0.417	0.046

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.116 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.825, then −0.2 cold shooting → 5.6

Period 2· 7.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.887	-0.204
Assists	3	0.79	0.92	0.19	2.413	0.458
Shots	3	1.87	1.59	0.09	0.708	0.064
Passes	9	7.87	3.4	0.08	0.334	0.027
Saves	1	0.99	1.43	0.19	0.004	0.001
Blocks	5	2.16	1.81	0.11	1.57	0.173
Takeaways	5	1.34	1.58	0.11	2.313	0.254

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.773 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 7.159, then +0.4 playmaker, −0.2 cold shooting → 7.4

Period 3· 7.1

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	2	0.88	0.99	0.23	1.136	0.261
Assists	2	0.79	0.92	0.19	1.323	0.251
Shots	4	1.87	1.59	0.09	1.335	0.12
Passes	6	7.87	3.4	0.08	-0.549	-0.044
Saves	1	0.99	1.43	0.19	0.004	0.001
Blocks	3	2.16	1.81	0.11	0.465	0.051
Takeaways	3	1.34	1.58	0.11	1.049	0.115

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.756 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 7.134, nothing hit the bonus or penalty thresholds → 7.1

Pucker+156

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	2.667	1.577	1.691	0.32	0.541
Shots	3.333	1.871	1.781	0.08	0.143
Saves	0.667	0.994	0.67	0.15	0.101
Blocks	3.333	2.158	1.545	0.07	0.108
Takeaways	3.333	1.341	2.486	0.12	0.298
Passes	8.333	7.866	1.059	0.08	0.085
Faceoff win rate	0.857	0.5	1.714	0.03	0.051

Σ 1.327 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 1.561 → ×100 = 156.09 → 156

Offensive1.07

Period 1· 0.45

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.053	0.108	0.4	0.21
Shooting %	0.333	0.469	0.2	0.144
Assists per pass	0	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.45

Period 2· 1.19

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.108	0.4	0.346
Shooting %	0	0.469	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.333	0.1	0.4	0.792

Σ contribution = 1.186

Period 3· 1.56

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.154	0.108	0.4	0.558
Shooting %	0.5	0.469	0.2	0.213
Assists per pass	0.333	0.1	0.4	0.792

Σ contribution = 1.564

Defensive1.35

Period 1· 1.06

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.994	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	2	2.158	0.927	0.2	0.185
Takeaways	2	1.341	1.456	0.25	0.364
Goals conceded	1	2.634	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.061

Period 2· 1.50

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.994	1.006	0.3	0.302
Blocks	5	2.158	1.866	0.2	0.373
Takeaways	5	1.341	1.992	0.25	0.498
Goals conceded	2	2.634	1.307	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 1.5

Period 3· 1.48

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.994	1.006	0.3	0.302
Blocks	3	2.158	1.372	0.2	0.274
Takeaways	3	1.341	1.845	0.25	0.461
Goals conceded	0	2.634	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.477

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

NUTSACK6 Champaign Champagne

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR7.3

Period 1· 5.7

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.88	0.99	0.23	0.125	0.029
Assists	1	0.79	0.92	0.19	0.232	0.044
Shots	3	1.87	1.59	0.09	0.708	0.064
Passes	15	7.87	3.4	0.08	2.098	0.168
Saves	0	0.99	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	1	2.16	1.81	0.11	-0.639	-0.07
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.58	0.11	0.417	0.046

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.148 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.221, then −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 cold shooting → 5.7

Period 2· 8.2

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	4	0.88	0.99	0.23	3.16	0.727
Assists	1	0.79	0.92	0.19	0.232	0.044
Shots	5	1.87	1.59	0.09	1.962	0.177
Passes	16	7.87	3.4	0.08	2.392	0.191
Saves	0	0.99	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	3	2.16	1.81	0.11	0.465	0.051
Takeaways	0	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.848	-0.093

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.965 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 7.447, then +0.5 hat trick, +0.25 hot shooting → 8.2

Period 3· 7.9

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	3	0.88	0.99	0.23	2.148	0.494
Assists	2	0.79	0.92	0.19	1.323	0.251
Shots	5	1.87	1.59	0.09	1.962	0.177
Passes	10	7.87	3.4	0.08	0.628	0.05
Saves	0	0.99	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	0	2.16	1.81	0.11	-1.191	-0.131
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.58	0.11	0.417	0.046

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.755 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 7.132, then +0.5 hat trick, +0.25 hot shooting → 7.9

Pucker+155

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	4	1.577	2.536	0.32	0.812
Shots	4.333	1.871	2.316	0.08	0.185
Saves	0	0.994	0	0.15	0
Blocks	1.333	2.158	0.618	0.07	0.043
Takeaways	1.333	1.341	0.994	0.12	0.119
Passes	13.667	7.866	1.738	0.08	0.139
Faceoff win rate	0.8	0.5	1.6	0.03	0.048

Σ 1.346 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 1.584 − 0.037 turnover penalty = 1.547 → ×100 = 154.73 → 155

Offensive1.21

Period 1· 1.21

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.4	0.108	0.4	0.796
Shooting %	0.333	0.469	0.2	0.144
Assists per pass	0.067	0.1	0.4	0.271

Σ contribution = 1.211

Period 2· 0.67

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.8	0.469	0.2	0.322
Assists per pass	0.062	0.1	0.4	0.257

Σ contribution = 0.674

Period 3· 1.75

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.357	0.108	0.4	0.792
Shooting %	0.6	0.469	0.2	0.255
Assists per pass	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.705

Σ contribution = 1.751

Defensive0.88

Period 1· 0.98

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.994	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	1	2.158	0.51	0.2	0.102
Takeaways	2	1.341	1.456	0.25	0.364
Goals conceded	1	2.634	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 0.978

Period 2· 0.73

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.994	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	3	2.158	1.372	0.2	0.274
Takeaways	0	1.341	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	2	2.634	1.307	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 0.733

Period 3· 0.92

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.994	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	0	2.158	0.238	0.2	0.048
Takeaways	2	1.341	1.456	0.25	0.364
Goals conceded	0	2.634	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 0.924

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

AboveAverageJoe Champaign Champagne

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR5.7

Period 1· 5.3

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.887	-0.204
Assists	2	0.79	0.92	0.19	1.323	0.251
Shots	1	1.87	1.59	0.09	-0.546	-0.049
Passes	11	7.87	3.4	0.08	0.922	0.074
Saves	0	0.99	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	1	2.16	1.81	0.11	-0.639	-0.07
Takeaways	1	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.215	-0.024

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.154 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.768, then −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 cold shooting → 5.3

Period 2· 6.7

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	2	0.88	0.99	0.23	1.136	0.261
Assists	1	0.79	0.92	0.19	0.232	0.044
Shots	3	1.87	1.59	0.09	0.708	0.064
Passes	8	7.87	3.4	0.08	0.039	0.003
Saves	0	0.99	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	1	2.16	1.81	0.11	-0.639	-0.07
Takeaways	3	1.34	1.58	0.11	1.049	0.115

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.285 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.428, then +0.25 hot shooting → 6.7

Period 3· 5.1

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.887	-0.204
Assists	1	0.79	0.92	0.19	0.232	0.044
Shots	2	1.87	1.59	0.09	0.081	0.007
Passes	5	7.87	3.4	0.08	-0.843	-0.067
Saves	0	0.99	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	2	2.16	1.81	0.11	-0.087	-0.01
Takeaways	0	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.848	-0.093

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.455 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.317, then −0.2 cold shooting → 5.1

Pucker+84

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	1.833	1.577	1.162	0.32	0.372
Shots	2	1.871	1.069	0.08	0.086
Saves	0	0.994	0	0.15	0
Blocks	1.333	2.158	0.618	0.07	0.043
Takeaways	1.333	1.341	0.994	0.12	0.119
Passes	8	7.866	1.017	0.08	0.081
Faceoff win rate	0.667	0.5	1.333	0.03	0.04

Σ 0.741 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 0.872 − 0.037 turnover penalty = 0.835 → ×100 = 83.55 → 84

Offensive1.41

Period 1· 1.11

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.105	0.108	0.4	0.388
Shooting %	0	0.469	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.182	0.1	0.4	0.669

Σ contribution = 1.105

Period 2· 1.57

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.333	0.108	0.4	0.787
Shooting %	0.667	0.469	0.2	0.28
Assists per pass	0.125	0.1	0.4	0.498

Σ contribution = 1.565

Period 3· 1.55

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	1	0.108	0.4	0.8
Shooting %	0	0.469	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.705

Σ contribution = 1.552

Defensive0.84

Period 1· 0.80

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.994	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	1	2.158	0.51	0.2	0.102
Takeaways	1	1.341	0.751	0.25	0.188
Goals conceded	1	2.634	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 0.802

Period 2· 0.96

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.994	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	1	2.158	0.51	0.2	0.102
Takeaways	3	1.341	1.845	0.25	0.461
Goals conceded	2	2.634	1.307	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 0.962

Period 3· 0.76

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.994	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	2	2.158	0.927	0.2	0.185
Takeaways	0	1.341	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	0	2.634	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 0.757

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.