Ottawa Valley Post Dingers vs Champaign Champagne

3–13Final

Oct 27, 2026 · Pro Division · Nassau Coliseum

MVP NUTSACK6 · 7.3 performance rating

Champaign Champagne 13, Ottawa Valley Post Dingers 3 (regulation). This outcome represents a typical Pro Division scoreline—16 goals total against a division median of 13. The match served as a regular season contest between the Ottawa Valley Post Dingers, who entered with a 1-10 record, and Champaign Champagne, who arrived at 6-7.

The game reached its turning point in the third period, which ended under the Mercy Rule. During this decisive frame, Champaign Champagne added 5 goals while the Ottawa Valley Post Dingers failed to find the net, resulting in a final score of 3-13.

NUTSACK6 delivered a dominant performance, leading the way with 8 goals and 4 assists to earn a 7.27 perf rating. Beefus also had a notable night, recording 3 goals and 5 assists while reaching a major milestone by scoring his 100th goal of his Pro career.

Player of the Game: NUTSACK6

Ottawa Valley Post DingersvsChampaign Champagne

5Shots2429

16Saves142

4Faceoffs won1014

11Takeaways718

18Turnovers↓711

32Blocks1418

48Passes4290

0:47Possession1:182:05

Win probability

The model's chance of winning at each period break.Biggest swing: Champaign Champagne gained 23 points in period 2.

Win Probability Added

How much each player moved the chance of winning, in percentage points. Zero-sum: every point one player gained, somebody on the other side lost.

nutsack6 🍾away+22.78
Beefus 🍾away+11.69
AboveAverageJoeaway+9.80
LessThanDennishome−7.97
walitooohome−14.63
Dave.home−21.67

Signed percentage points · model fit on 329 period-log games. WPA needs a verified period log, so it only exists for the matches whose players uploaded one — most box scores have no WPA.

By period

Ottawa Valley Post DingersChampaign Champagne

1st

Possession

0:160:43

Shots: 17
Faceoffs won: 13
Blocks: 144

LessThanDennis, dave, Walster

AboveAverageJoe, Beefus, NUTSACK6

2nd

Possession

0:150:41

Shots: 311
Faceoffs won: 27
Blocks: 109

LessThanDennis, dave, Walster

AboveAverageJoe, Beefus, NUTSACK6

3rdMercy

Possession

0:160:41

Shots: 111
Faceoffs won: 14
Blocks: 85

LessThanDennis, dave, Walster

AboveAverageJoe, Beefus, NUTSACK6

APR is the Alto Performance Rating: 0 to 10, with 6.0 league average. Click any APR to see the working.

Ottawa Valley Post Dingers

Player	G	A	Pts	Shots	Saves	FOW	FOL	TK	TO	Blk	Passes	Poss	Pucker+	Off	Def
LessThanDennis	0	1	1	0	12	0	4	2	2	11	18	0:16	103	0.57	1.24
dave	2	1	3	2	1	1	7	6	6	10	15	0:18	66	1.00	0.91
Walster	1	1	2	3	3	3	3	3	10	11	15	0:13	50	0.75	0.98

Champaign Champagne

Player	G	A	Pts	Shots	Saves	FOW	FOL	TK	TO	Blk	Passes	Poss	Pucker+	Off	Def
Beefus	3	5	8	10	2	6	1	10	1	10	25	1:17	156	1.07	1.35
NUTSACK6	8	4	12	13	0	4	1	4	5	4	41	0:19	155	1.21	0.88
AboveAverageJoe	2	4	6	6	0	4	2	4	5	4	24	0:29	84	1.41	0.84

LessThanDennis Ottawa Valley Post Dingers

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR6.2

Period 1· 6.1

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.885	-0.204
Assists	0	0.79	0.91	0.19	-0.862	-0.164
Shots	0	1.88	1.6	0.09	-1.172	-0.105
Passes	5	7.86	3.4	0.08	-0.84	-0.067
Saves	4	1	1.43	0.19	2.092	0.397
Blocks	2	2.15	1.81	0.11	-0.083	-0.009
Takeaways	1	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.215	-0.024

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.175 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.737, then +0.35 saves → 6.1

Period 2· 6.3

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.885	-0.204
Assists	1	0.79	0.91	0.19	0.235	0.045
Shots	0	1.88	1.6	0.09	-1.172	-0.105
Passes	9	7.86	3.4	0.08	0.335	0.027
Saves	3	1	1.43	0.19	1.395	0.265
Blocks	4	2.15	1.81	0.11	1.022	0.112
Takeaways	1	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.215	-0.024

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.116 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.174, then +0.35 saves, −0.2 goals against → 6.3

Period 3· 6.2

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.885	-0.204
Assists	0	0.79	0.91	0.19	-0.862	-0.164
Shots	0	1.88	1.6	0.09	-1.172	-0.105
Passes	4	7.86	3.4	0.08	-1.134	-0.091
Saves	5	1	1.43	0.19	2.789	0.53
Blocks	5	2.15	1.81	0.11	1.574	0.173
Takeaways	0	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.847	-0.093

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.046 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.069, then +0.35 saves, −0.2 goals against → 6.2

Pucker+103

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	0.167	1.577	0.106	0.32	0.034
Shots	0	1.877	0	0.08	0
Saves	4	0.999	4.005	0.15	0.601
Blocks	3.667	2.149	1.706	0.07	0.119
Takeaways	0.667	1.34	0.498	0.12	0.06
Passes	6	7.858	0.764	0.08	0.061
Faceoff win rate	0	0.5	0	0.03	0

Σ 0.875 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 1.029 → ×100 = 102.91 → 103

Offensive0.57

Period 1· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.468	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Period 2· 1.24

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.25	0.108	0.4	0.746
Shooting %	0	0.468	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.111	0.1	0.4	0.444

Σ contribution = 1.238

Period 3· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.468	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Defensive1.24

Period 1· 1.30

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	4	0.999	1.995	0.3	0.599
Blocks	2	2.149	0.931	0.2	0.186
Takeaways	1	1.34	0.752	0.25	0.188
Goals conceded	2	2.636	1.308	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 1.3

Period 2· 1.24

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	3	0.999	1.964	0.3	0.589
Blocks	4	2.149	1.697	0.2	0.339
Takeaways	1	1.34	0.752	0.25	0.188
Goals conceded	6	2.636	0.492	0.25	0.123

Σ contribution = 1.239

Period 3· 1.17

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	5	0.999	1.999	0.3	0.6
Blocks	5	2.149	1.868	0.2	0.374
Takeaways	0	1.34	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	5	2.636	0.56	0.25	0.14

Σ contribution = 1.174

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

dave Ottawa Valley Post Dingers

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR5.7

Period 1· 6.5

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.88	0.99	0.23	0.123	0.028
Assists	0	0.79	0.91	0.19	-0.862	-0.164
Shots	1	1.88	1.6	0.09	-0.547	-0.049
Passes	3	7.86	3.4	0.08	-1.428	-0.114
Saves	0	1	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	7	2.15	1.81	0.11	2.678	0.295
Takeaways	3	1.34	1.58	0.11	1.05	0.115

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.021 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.968, then +0.3 blocks, +0.25 hot shooting → 6.5

Period 2· 5.9

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.88	0.99	0.23	0.123	0.028
Assists	1	0.79	0.91	0.19	0.235	0.045
Shots	1	1.88	1.6	0.09	-0.547	-0.049
Passes	5	7.86	3.4	0.08	-0.84	-0.067
Saves	1	1	1.43	0.19	0.001	0
Blocks	1	2.15	1.81	0.11	-0.635	-0.07
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.58	0.11	0.417	0.046

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.067 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.899, then +0.25 hot shooting, −0.2 goals against → 5.9

Period 3· 4.8

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.885	-0.204
Assists	0	0.79	0.91	0.19	-0.862	-0.164
Shots	0	1.88	1.6	0.09	-1.172	-0.105
Passes	7	7.86	3.4	0.08	-0.252	-0.02
Saves	0	1	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	2	2.15	1.81	0.11	-0.083	-0.009
Takeaways	1	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.215	-0.024

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.658 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.013, then −0.2 goals against → 4.8

Pucker+66

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	1	1.577	0.634	0.32	0.203
Shots	0.667	1.877	0.355	0.08	0.028
Saves	0.333	0.999	0.334	0.15	0.05
Blocks	3.333	2.149	1.551	0.07	0.109
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.493	0.12	0.179
Passes	5	7.858	0.636	0.08	0.051
Faceoff win rate	0.125	0.5	0.25	0.03	0.007

Σ 0.627 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 0.738 − 0.074 turnover penalty = 0.664 → ×100 = 66.39 → 66

Offensive1.00

Period 1· 0.92

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.125	0.108	0.4	0.463
Shooting %	1	0.468	0.2	0.363
Assists per pass	0	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.921

Period 2· 1.86

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.333	0.108	0.4	0.788
Shooting %	1	0.468	0.2	0.363
Assists per pass	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.705

Σ contribution = 1.855

Period 3· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.468	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Defensive0.91

Period 1· 1.26

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.999	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	7	2.149	1.978	0.2	0.396
Takeaways	3	1.34	1.845	0.25	0.461
Goals conceded	2	2.636	1.308	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 1.256

Period 2· 0.89

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.999	1.001	0.3	0.3
Blocks	1	2.149	0.511	0.2	0.102
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.456	0.25	0.364
Goals conceded	6	2.636	0.492	0.25	0.123

Σ contribution = 0.889

Period 3· 0.59

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.999	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	2	2.149	0.931	0.2	0.186
Takeaways	1	1.34	0.752	0.25	0.188
Goals conceded	5	2.636	0.56	0.25	0.14

Σ contribution = 0.586

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

Walster Ottawa Valley Post Dingers

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR5.2

Period 1· 5.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.885	-0.204
Assists	0	0.79	0.91	0.19	-0.862	-0.164
Shots	0	1.88	1.6	0.09	-1.172	-0.105
Passes	3	7.86	3.4	0.08	-1.428	-0.114
Saves	1	1	1.43	0.19	0.001	0
Blocks	5	2.15	1.81	0.11	1.574	0.173
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.58	0.11	0.417	0.046

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.368 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.448, nothing hit the bonus or penalty thresholds → 5.4

Period 2· 5.7

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.88	0.99	0.23	0.123	0.028
Assists	1	0.79	0.91	0.19	0.235	0.045
Shots	2	1.88	1.6	0.09	0.077	0.007
Passes	4	7.86	3.4	0.08	-1.134	-0.091
Saves	1	1	1.43	0.19	0.001	0
Blocks	5	2.15	1.81	0.11	1.574	0.173
Takeaways	1	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.215	-0.024

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.139 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.208, then −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 goals against → 5.7

Period 3· 4.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.885	-0.204
Assists	0	0.79	0.91	0.19	-0.862	-0.164
Shots	1	1.88	1.6	0.09	-0.547	-0.049
Passes	8	7.86	3.4	0.08	0.042	0.003
Saves	1	1	1.43	0.19	0.001	0
Blocks	1	2.15	1.81	0.11	-0.635	-0.07
Takeaways	0	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.847	-0.093

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.576 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.136, then −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 cold shooting, −0.2 goals against → 4.4

Pucker+50

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	0.667	1.577	0.423	0.32	0.135
Shots	1	1.877	0.533	0.08	0.043
Saves	1	0.999	1.001	0.15	0.15
Blocks	3.667	2.149	1.706	0.07	0.119
Takeaways	1	1.34	0.746	0.12	0.09
Passes	5	7.858	0.636	0.08	0.051
Faceoff win rate	0.5	0.5	1	0.03	0.03

Σ 0.618 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 0.727 − 0.224 turnover penalty = 0.503 → ×100 = 50.32 → 50

Offensive0.75

Period 1· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.468	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Period 2· 1.77

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.4	0.108	0.4	0.796
Shooting %	0.5	0.468	0.2	0.214
Assists per pass	0.25	0.1	0.4	0.762

Σ contribution = 1.772

Period 3· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.468	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Defensive0.98

Period 1· 1.36

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.999	1.001	0.3	0.3
Blocks	5	2.149	1.868	0.2	0.374
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.456	0.25	0.364
Goals conceded	2	2.636	1.308	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 1.365

Period 2· 0.98

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.999	1.001	0.3	0.3
Blocks	5	2.149	1.868	0.2	0.374
Takeaways	1	1.34	0.752	0.25	0.188
Goals conceded	6	2.636	0.492	0.25	0.123

Σ contribution = 0.985

Period 3· 0.60

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.999	1.001	0.3	0.3
Blocks	1	2.149	0.511	0.2	0.102
Takeaways	0	1.34	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	5	2.636	0.56	0.25	0.14

Σ contribution = 0.602

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

Beefus Champaign Champagne

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR6.7

Period 1· 5.6

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.88	0.99	0.23	0.123	0.028
Assists	0	0.79	0.91	0.19	-0.862	-0.164
Shots	3	1.88	1.6	0.09	0.702	0.063
Passes	10	7.86	3.4	0.08	0.629	0.05
Saves	0	1	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	2	2.15	1.81	0.11	-0.083	-0.009
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.58	0.11	0.417	0.046

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.117 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.824, then −0.2 cold shooting → 5.6

Period 2· 7.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.885	-0.204
Assists	3	0.79	0.91	0.19	2.429	0.462
Shots	3	1.88	1.6	0.09	0.702	0.063
Passes	9	7.86	3.4	0.08	0.335	0.027
Saves	1	1	1.43	0.19	0.001	0
Blocks	5	2.15	1.81	0.11	1.574	0.173
Takeaways	5	1.34	1.58	0.11	2.314	0.255

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.776 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 7.164, then +0.4 playmaker, −0.2 cold shooting → 7.4

Period 3· 7.1

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	2	0.88	0.99	0.23	1.132	0.26
Assists	2	0.79	0.91	0.19	1.332	0.253
Shots	4	1.88	1.6	0.09	1.326	0.119
Passes	6	7.86	3.4	0.08	-0.546	-0.044
Saves	1	1	1.43	0.19	0.001	0
Blocks	3	2.15	1.81	0.11	0.47	0.052
Takeaways	3	1.34	1.58	0.11	1.05	0.115

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.756 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 7.135, nothing hit the bonus or penalty thresholds → 7.1

Pucker+156

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	2.667	1.577	1.691	0.32	0.541
Shots	3.333	1.877	1.776	0.08	0.142
Saves	0.667	0.999	0.667	0.15	0.1
Blocks	3.333	2.149	1.551	0.07	0.109
Takeaways	3.333	1.34	2.488	0.12	0.299
Passes	8.333	7.858	1.06	0.08	0.085
Faceoff win rate	0.857	0.5	1.714	0.03	0.051

Σ 1.327 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 1.561 → ×100 = 156.08 → 156

Offensive1.07

Period 1· 0.45

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.053	0.108	0.4	0.211
Shooting %	0.333	0.468	0.2	0.144
Assists per pass	0	0.1	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.451

Period 2· 1.19

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.108	0.4	0.348
Shooting %	0	0.468	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.333	0.1	0.4	0.792

Σ contribution = 1.188

Period 3· 1.57

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.154	0.108	0.4	0.561
Shooting %	0.5	0.468	0.2	0.214
Assists per pass	0.333	0.1	0.4	0.792

Σ contribution = 1.567

Defensive1.35

Period 1· 1.06

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.999	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	2	2.149	0.931	0.2	0.186
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.456	0.25	0.364
Goals conceded	1	2.636	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.062

Period 2· 1.50

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.999	1.001	0.3	0.3
Blocks	5	2.149	1.868	0.2	0.374
Takeaways	5	1.34	1.992	0.25	0.498
Goals conceded	2	2.636	1.308	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 1.499

Period 3· 1.48

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.999	1.001	0.3	0.3
Blocks	3	2.149	1.376	0.2	0.275
Takeaways	3	1.34	1.845	0.25	0.461
Goals conceded	0	2.636	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.476

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

NUTSACK6 Champaign Champagne

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR7.3

Period 1· 5.7

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.88	0.99	0.23	0.123	0.028
Assists	1	0.79	0.91	0.19	0.235	0.045
Shots	3	1.88	1.6	0.09	0.702	0.063
Passes	15	7.86	3.4	0.08	2.098	0.168
Saves	0	1	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	1	2.15	1.81	0.11	-0.635	-0.07
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.58	0.11	0.417	0.046

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.148 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.222, then −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 cold shooting → 5.7

Period 2· 8.2

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	4	0.88	0.99	0.23	3.15	0.724
Assists	1	0.79	0.91	0.19	0.235	0.045
Shots	5	1.88	1.6	0.09	1.951	0.176
Passes	16	7.86	3.4	0.08	2.392	0.191
Saves	0	1	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	3	2.15	1.81	0.11	0.47	0.052
Takeaways	0	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.847	-0.093

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.962 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 7.443, then +0.5 hat trick, +0.25 hot shooting → 8.2

Period 3· 7.9

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	3	0.88	0.99	0.23	2.141	0.492
Assists	2	0.79	0.91	0.19	1.332	0.253
Shots	5	1.88	1.6	0.09	1.951	0.176
Passes	10	7.86	3.4	0.08	0.629	0.05
Saves	0	1	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	0	2.15	1.81	0.11	-1.187	-0.131
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.58	0.11	0.417	0.046

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.754 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 7.132, then +0.5 hat trick, +0.25 hot shooting → 7.9

Pucker+155

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	4	1.577	2.536	0.32	0.812
Shots	4.333	1.877	2.309	0.08	0.185
Saves	0	0.999	0	0.15	0
Blocks	1.333	2.149	0.62	0.07	0.043
Takeaways	1.333	1.34	0.995	0.12	0.119
Passes	13.667	7.858	1.739	0.08	0.139
Faceoff win rate	0.8	0.5	1.6	0.03	0.048

Σ 1.346 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 1.584 − 0.037 turnover penalty = 1.547 → ×100 = 154.71 → 155

Offensive1.21

Period 1· 1.21

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.4	0.108	0.4	0.796
Shooting %	0.333	0.468	0.2	0.144
Assists per pass	0.067	0.1	0.4	0.271

Σ contribution = 1.212

Period 2· 0.67

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0	0.108	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.8	0.468	0.2	0.322
Assists per pass	0.062	0.1	0.4	0.257

Σ contribution = 0.674

Period 3· 1.75

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.357	0.108	0.4	0.792
Shooting %	0.6	0.468	0.2	0.255
Assists per pass	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.705

Σ contribution = 1.752

Defensive0.88

Period 1· 0.98

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.999	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	1	2.149	0.511	0.2	0.102
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.456	0.25	0.364
Goals conceded	1	2.636	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 0.978

Period 2· 0.73

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.999	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	3	2.149	1.376	0.2	0.275
Takeaways	0	1.34	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	2	2.636	1.308	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 0.734

Period 3· 0.92

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.999	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	0	2.149	0.238	0.2	0.048
Takeaways	2	1.34	1.456	0.25	0.364
Goals conceded	0	2.636	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 0.924

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

AboveAverageJoe Champaign Champagne

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR5.7

Period 1· 5.3

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.885	-0.204
Assists	2	0.79	0.91	0.19	1.332	0.253
Shots	1	1.88	1.6	0.09	-0.547	-0.049
Passes	11	7.86	3.4	0.08	0.923	0.074
Saves	0	1	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	1	2.15	1.81	0.11	-0.635	-0.07
Takeaways	1	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.215	-0.024

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.152 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.772, then −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 cold shooting → 5.3

Period 2· 6.7

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	2	0.88	0.99	0.23	1.132	0.26
Assists	1	0.79	0.91	0.19	0.235	0.045
Shots	3	1.88	1.6	0.09	0.702	0.063
Passes	8	7.86	3.4	0.08	0.042	0.003
Saves	0	1	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	1	2.15	1.81	0.11	-0.635	-0.07
Takeaways	3	1.34	1.58	0.11	1.05	0.115

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.285 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.427, then +0.25 hot shooting → 6.7

Period 3· 5.1

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.88	0.99	0.23	-0.885	-0.204
Assists	1	0.79	0.91	0.19	0.235	0.045
Shots	2	1.88	1.6	0.09	0.077	0.007
Passes	5	7.86	3.4	0.08	-0.84	-0.067
Saves	0	1	1.43	0.19	-0.696	-0.132
Blocks	2	2.15	1.81	0.11	-0.083	-0.009
Takeaways	0	1.34	1.58	0.11	-0.847	-0.093

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.454 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.319, then −0.2 cold shooting → 5.1

Pucker+84

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	1.833	1.577	1.163	0.32	0.372
Shots	2	1.877	1.066	0.08	0.085
Saves	0	0.999	0	0.15	0
Blocks	1.333	2.149	0.62	0.07	0.043
Takeaways	1.333	1.34	0.995	0.12	0.119
Passes	8	7.858	1.018	0.08	0.081
Faceoff win rate	0.667	0.5	1.333	0.03	0.04

Σ 0.742 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 0.872 − 0.037 turnover penalty = 0.835 → ×100 = 83.55 → 84

Offensive1.41

Period 1· 1.11

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.105	0.108	0.4	0.39
Shooting %	0	0.468	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.182	0.1	0.4	0.67

Σ contribution = 1.107

Period 2· 1.57

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.333	0.108	0.4	0.788
Shooting %	0.667	0.468	0.2	0.28
Assists per pass	0.125	0.1	0.4	0.498

Σ contribution = 1.566

Period 3· 1.55

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	1	0.108	0.4	0.8
Shooting %	0	0.468	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.705

Σ contribution = 1.552

Defensive0.84

Period 1· 0.80

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.999	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	1	2.149	0.511	0.2	0.102
Takeaways	1	1.34	0.752	0.25	0.188
Goals conceded	1	2.636	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 0.802

Period 2· 0.96

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.999	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	1	2.149	0.511	0.2	0.102
Takeaways	3	1.34	1.845	0.25	0.461
Goals conceded	2	2.636	1.308	0.25	0.327

Σ contribution = 0.962

Period 3· 0.76

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.999	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	2	2.149	0.931	0.2	0.186
Takeaways	0	1.34	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	0	2.636	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 0.758

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.