Ottawa Valley Pond Pirates vs Vader Desperados

3–10Final

Oct 28, 2026 · Prospect Division · Dutchman's Deck

MVP Meenimizer · 6.9 performance rating

Vader Desperados 10, Ottawa Valley Pond Pirates 3 (regulation). This matchup served as a regular season contest between the Ottawa Valley Pond Pirates, who entered the game 4-8, and the Vader Desperados, who stood at 4-3. The final score of 13 goals represents a typical Prospect Division scoreline, landing at the division median of 13 goals.

The game shifted gears significantly during the second period, which served as the decisive frame. While the Pond Pirates managed to find the back of the net once, the Desperados surged forward to score 5 goals, extending their lead to 6-3 by the end of the period. The Desperados maintained their offensive pressure into the third, adding 4 more goals to secure the victory.

Meenimizer led the way for the Desperados, finishing with 7 points and a 6.87 perf. They were a constant threat, recording 4 goals and 3 assists while contributing 4 saves and 4 blocks. They were followed closely by Ghostwalker, who tallied 5 goals and 2 assists to finish with a 6.73 perf.

Player of the Game: Meenimizer

Ottawa Valley Pond PiratesvsVader Desperados

8Shots1624

14Saves95

3Faceoffs won912

10Takeaways1222

22Turnovers↓1210

27Blocks207

42Passes2062

0:56Possession2:133:09

Win probability

The model's chance of winning at each period break.Biggest swing: Vader Desperados gained 27 points in period 2.

Win Probability Added

How much each player moved the chance of winning, in percentage points. Zero-sum: every point one player gained, somebody on the other side lost.

Ghostwalkeraway+23.52
meenimizeraway+19.57
ochaseaway−5.43
TheRealAmeriCamhome−5.90
specialhome−7.86
Drpeckerhome−23.90

Signed percentage points · model fit on 329 period-log games. WPA needs a verified period log, so it only exists for the matches whose players uploaded one — most box scores have no WPA.

By period

Ottawa Valley Pond PiratesVader Desperados

1st

Possession

0:201:23

Shots: 34
Faceoffs won: 13
Blocks: 110

drpecker, TheRealAmeriCam, Special

oChase, Ghostwalker, Meenimizer

2nd

Possession

0:090:40

Shots: 211
Faceoffs won: 16
Blocks: 92

drpecker, TheRealAmeriCam, Special

oChase, Ghostwalker, Meenimizer

3rd

Possession

0:271:06

Shots: 39
Faceoffs won: 13
Blocks: 75

drpecker, TheRealAmeriCam, Special

oChase, Ghostwalker, Meenimizer

APR is the Alto Performance Rating: 0 to 10, with 6.0 league average. Click any APR to see the working.

Ottawa Valley Pond Pirates

Player	G	A	Pts	Shots	Saves	FOW	FOL	TK	TO	Blk	Passes	Poss	Pucker+	Off	Def
drpecker	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	7	7	8	16	0:20	55	0.57	0.97
Special	2	1	3	4	3	2	7	1	5	10	14	0:15	86	1.01	0.99
TheRealAmeriCam	0	0	0	3	10	0	3	2	10	9	12	0:21	95	0.24	1.25

Vader Desperados

Player	G	A	Pts	Shots	Saves	FOW	FOL	TK	TO	Blk	Passes	Poss	Pucker+	Off	Def
Meenimizer	4	3	7	5	4	5	1	8	1	4	13	1:46	163	1.08	1.36
Ghostwalker	5	2	7	10	1	4	2	9	3	2	28	1:01	160	0.94	1.12
oChase	1	1	2	9	0	3	0	5	6	1	21	0:22	69	0.81	0.83

drpecker Ottawa Valley Pond Pirates

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR5.5

Period 1· 5.3

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	0	1.34	1.45	0.09	-0.928	-0.083
Passes	4	6.55	3.3	0.08	-0.772	-0.062
Saves	0	0.65	0.95	0.19	-0.686	-0.13
Blocks	2	2.17	1.86	0.11	-0.093	-0.01
Takeaways	5	1.2	1.35	0.11	2.813	0.309

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.278 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.583, then −0.3 turnovers → 5.3

Period 2· 5.8

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.69	0.95	0.23	0.328	0.075
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	1	1.34	1.45	0.09	-0.237	-0.021
Passes	4	6.55	3.3	0.08	-0.772	-0.062
Saves	0	0.65	0.95	0.19	-0.686	-0.13
Blocks	4	2.17	1.86	0.11	0.983	0.108
Takeaways	1	1.2	1.35	0.11	-0.149	-0.016

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.181 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.729, then +0.25 hot shooting, −0.2 goals against → 5.8

Period 3· 5.3

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	0	1.34	1.45	0.09	-0.928	-0.083
Passes	8	6.55	3.3	0.08	0.44	0.035
Saves	1	0.65	0.95	0.19	0.364	0.069
Blocks	2	2.17	1.86	0.11	-0.093	-0.01
Takeaways	1	1.2	1.35	0.11	-0.149	-0.016

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.308 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.539, then −0.2 goals against → 5.3

Pucker+55

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	0.333	1.229	0.271	0.32	0.087
Shots	0.333	1.342	0.248	0.08	0.02
Saves	0.333	0.653	0.51	0.15	0.077
Blocks	2.667	2.173	1.227	0.07	0.086
Takeaways	2.333	1.201	1.942	0.12	0.233
Passes	5.333	6.548	0.815	0.08	0.065
Faceoff win rate	0.333	0.5	0.667	0.03	0.02

Σ 0.587 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 0.691 − 0.143 turnover penalty = 0.548 → ×100 = 54.83 → 55

Offensive0.57

Period 1· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Period 2· 1.24

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.333	0.094	0.4	0.795
Shooting %	1	0.513	0.2	0.348
Assists per pass	0	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 1.238

Period 3· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Defensive0.97

Period 1· 1.20

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.653	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	2	2.173	0.921	0.2	0.184
Takeaways	5	1.201	1.996	0.25	0.499
Goals conceded	1	2.073	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.195

Period 2· 0.73

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.653	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	4	2.173	1.686	0.2	0.337
Takeaways	1	1.201	0.834	0.25	0.208
Goals conceded	5	2.073	0.473	0.25	0.118

Σ contribution = 0.735

Period 3· 0.98

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.653	1.486	0.3	0.446
Blocks	2	2.173	0.921	0.2	0.184
Takeaways	1	1.201	0.834	0.25	0.208
Goals conceded	4	2.073	0.552	0.25	0.138

Σ contribution = 0.976

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

Special Ottawa Valley Pond Pirates

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR5.8

Period 1· 7.2

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	2	0.69	0.95	0.23	1.384	0.318
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	3	1.34	1.45	0.09	1.145	0.103
Passes	4	6.55	3.3	0.08	-0.772	-0.062
Saves	1	0.65	0.95	0.19	0.364	0.069
Blocks	8	2.17	1.86	0.11	3.135	0.345
Takeaways	1	1.2	1.35	0.11	-0.149	-0.016

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.623 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.934, then +0.3 blocks, +0.25 hot shooting, −0.3 turnovers → 7.2

Period 2· 5.2

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	1	0.6	0.84	0.19	0.48	0.091
Shots	0	1.34	1.45	0.09	-0.928	-0.083
Passes	2	6.55	3.3	0.08	-1.379	-0.11
Saves	1	0.65	0.95	0.19	0.364	0.069
Blocks	1	2.17	1.86	0.11	-0.631	-0.069
Takeaways	0	1.2	1.35	0.11	-0.89	-0.098

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.368 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.448, then −0.2 goals against → 5.2

Period 3· 5.0

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	1	1.34	1.45	0.09	-0.237	-0.021
Passes	8	6.55	3.3	0.08	0.44	0.035
Saves	1	0.65	0.95	0.19	0.364	0.069
Blocks	1	2.17	1.86	0.11	-0.631	-0.069
Takeaways	0	1.2	1.35	0.11	-0.89	-0.098

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.386 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.421, then −0.2 cold shooting, −0.2 goals against → 5.0

Pucker+86

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	1	1.229	0.813	0.32	0.26
Shots	1.333	1.342	0.993	0.08	0.079
Saves	1	0.653	1.53	0.15	0.23
Blocks	3.333	2.173	1.534	0.07	0.107
Takeaways	0.333	1.201	0.277	0.12	0.033
Passes	4.667	6.548	0.713	0.08	0.057
Faceoff win rate	0.222	0.5	0.444	0.03	0.013

Σ 0.78 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 0.918 − 0.059 turnover penalty = 0.859 → ×100 = 85.9 → 86

Offensive1.01

Period 1· 1.14

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.286	0.094	0.4	0.786
Shooting %	0.667	0.513	0.2	0.258
Assists per pass	0	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 1.14

Period 2· 1.65

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	1	0.094	0.4	0.8
Shooting %	0	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.5	0.091	0.4	0.8

Σ contribution = 1.648

Period 3· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Defensive0.99

Period 1· 1.49

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.653	1.486	0.3	0.446
Blocks	8	2.173	1.991	0.2	0.398
Takeaways	1	1.201	0.834	0.25	0.208
Goals conceded	1	2.073	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.492

Period 2· 0.72

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.653	1.486	0.3	0.446
Blocks	1	2.173	0.507	0.2	0.101
Takeaways	0	1.201	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	5	2.073	0.473	0.25	0.118

Σ contribution = 0.725

Period 3· 0.74

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.653	1.486	0.3	0.446
Blocks	1	2.173	0.507	0.2	0.101
Takeaways	0	1.201	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	4	2.073	0.552	0.25	0.138

Σ contribution = 0.745

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

TheRealAmeriCam Ottawa Valley Pond Pirates

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR5.9

Period 1· 5.3

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	0	1.34	1.45	0.09	-0.928	-0.083
Passes	5	6.55	3.3	0.08	-0.469	-0.038
Saves	2	0.65	0.95	0.19	1.414	0.269
Blocks	1	2.17	1.86	0.11	-0.631	-0.069
Takeaways	1	1.2	1.35	0.11	-0.149	-0.016

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.24 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.64, then −0.3 turnovers → 5.3

Period 2· 6.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	1	1.34	1.45	0.09	-0.237	-0.021
Passes	3	6.55	3.3	0.08	-1.075	-0.086
Saves	5	0.65	0.95	0.19	4.564	0.867
Blocks	4	2.17	1.86	0.11	0.983	0.108
Takeaways	0	1.2	1.35	0.11	-0.89	-0.098

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.468 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.702, then +0.35 saves, −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 cold shooting, −0.2 goals against → 6.4

Period 3· 6.0

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	2	1.34	1.45	0.09	0.454	0.041
Passes	4	6.55	3.3	0.08	-0.772	-0.062
Saves	3	0.65	0.95	0.19	2.464	0.468
Blocks	4	2.17	1.86	0.11	0.983	0.108
Takeaways	1	1.2	1.35	0.11	-0.149	-0.016

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.237 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.356, then +0.35 saves, −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 cold shooting, −0.2 goals against → 6.0

Pucker+95

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	0	1.229	0	0.32	0
Shots	1	1.342	0.745	0.08	0.06
Saves	3.333	0.653	5.101	0.15	0.765
Blocks	3	2.173	1.381	0.07	0.097
Takeaways	0.667	1.201	0.555	0.12	0.067
Passes	4	6.548	0.611	0.08	0.049
Faceoff win rate	0	0.5	0	0.03	0

Σ 1.037 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 1.22 − 0.268 turnover penalty = 0.952 → ×100 = 95.18 → 95

Offensive0.24

Period 1· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Period 2· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Period 3· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Defensive1.25

Period 1· 1.34

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	2	0.653	1.968	0.3	0.59
Blocks	1	2.173	0.507	0.2	0.101
Takeaways	1	1.201	0.834	0.25	0.208
Goals conceded	1	2.073	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.339

Period 2· 1.11

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	5	0.653	2	0.3	0.6
Blocks	4	2.173	1.686	0.2	0.337
Takeaways	0	1.201	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	5	2.073	0.473	0.25	0.118

Σ contribution = 1.115

Period 3· 1.28

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	3	0.653	1.998	0.3	0.6
Blocks	4	2.173	1.686	0.2	0.337
Takeaways	1	1.201	0.834	0.25	0.208
Goals conceded	4	2.073	0.552	0.25	0.138

Σ contribution = 1.283

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

Meenimizer Vader Desperados

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR6.9

Period 1· 5.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	0	1.34	1.45	0.09	-0.928	-0.083
Passes	3	6.55	3.3	0.08	-1.075	-0.086
Saves	1	0.65	0.95	0.19	0.364	0.069
Blocks	0	2.17	1.86	0.11	-1.169	-0.129
Takeaways	3	1.2	1.35	0.11	1.332	0.147

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.384 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.423, nothing hit the bonus or penalty thresholds → 5.4

Period 2· 6.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.69	0.95	0.23	0.328	0.075
Assists	2	0.6	0.84	0.19	1.669	0.317
Shots	2	1.34	1.45	0.09	0.454	0.041
Passes	4	6.55	3.3	0.08	-0.772	-0.062
Saves	1	0.65	0.95	0.19	0.364	0.069
Blocks	1	2.17	1.86	0.11	-0.631	-0.069
Takeaways	0	1.2	1.35	0.11	-0.89	-0.098

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.274 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.41, nothing hit the bonus or penalty thresholds → 6.4

Period 3· 8.8

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	3	0.69	0.95	0.23	2.439	0.561
Assists	1	0.6	0.84	0.19	0.48	0.091
Shots	3	1.34	1.45	0.09	1.145	0.103
Passes	6	6.55	3.3	0.08	-0.166	-0.013
Saves	2	0.65	0.95	0.19	1.414	0.269
Blocks	3	2.17	1.86	0.11	0.445	0.049
Takeaways	5	1.2	1.35	0.11	2.813	0.309

6.0 + clip(Σ 1.369 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 8.054, then +0.5 hat trick, +0.25 hot shooting → 8.8

Pucker+163

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	2.167	1.229	1.762	0.32	0.564
Shots	1.667	1.342	1.241	0.08	0.099
Saves	1.333	0.653	2.041	0.15	0.306
Blocks	1.333	2.173	0.614	0.07	0.043
Takeaways	2.667	1.201	2.22	0.12	0.266
Passes	4.333	6.548	0.662	0.08	0.053
Faceoff win rate	0.833	0.5	1.667	0.03	0.05

Σ 1.382 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 1.625 → ×100 = 162.54 → 163

Offensive1.08

Period 1· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Period 2· 1.52

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.125	0.094	0.4	0.525
Shooting %	0.5	0.513	0.2	0.195
Assists per pass	0.5	0.091	0.4	0.8

Σ contribution = 1.52

Period 3· 1.49

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.111	0.094	0.4	0.47
Shooting %	1	0.513	0.2	0.348
Assists per pass	0.167	0.091	0.4	0.672

Σ contribution = 1.49

Defensive1.36

Period 1· 1.23

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.653	1.486	0.3	0.446
Blocks	0	2.173	0.238	0.2	0.048
Takeaways	3	1.201	1.905	0.25	0.476
Goals conceded	2	2.073	1.036	0.25	0.259

Σ contribution = 1.229

Period 2· 1.05

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.653	1.486	0.3	0.446
Blocks	1	2.173	0.507	0.2	0.101
Takeaways	0	1.201	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	1	2.073	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.047

Period 3· 1.80

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	2	0.653	1.968	0.3	0.59
Blocks	3	2.173	1.363	0.2	0.273
Takeaways	5	1.201	1.996	0.25	0.499
Goals conceded	0	2.073	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.802

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

Ghostwalker Vader Desperados

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR6.7

Period 1· 5.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	1	1.34	1.45	0.09	-0.237	-0.021
Passes	11	6.55	3.3	0.08	1.349	0.108
Saves	0	0.65	0.95	0.19	-0.686	-0.13
Blocks	0	2.17	1.86	0.11	-1.169	-0.129
Takeaways	4	1.2	1.35	0.11	2.072	0.228

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.246 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.631, then −0.2 cold shooting → 5.4

Period 2· 8.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	4	0.69	0.95	0.23	3.495	0.804
Assists	1	0.6	0.84	0.19	0.48	0.091
Shots	6	1.34	1.45	0.09	3.219	0.29
Passes	9	6.55	3.3	0.08	0.743	0.059
Saves	0	0.65	0.95	0.19	-0.686	-0.13
Blocks	0	2.17	1.86	0.11	-1.169	-0.129
Takeaways	3	1.2	1.35	0.11	1.332	0.147

6.0 + clip(Σ 1.132 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 7.698, then +0.5 hat trick, +0.25 hot shooting → 8.4

Period 3· 6.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.69	0.95	0.23	0.328	0.075
Assists	1	0.6	0.84	0.19	0.48	0.091
Shots	3	1.34	1.45	0.09	1.145	0.103
Passes	8	6.55	3.3	0.08	0.44	0.035
Saves	1	0.65	0.95	0.19	0.364	0.069
Blocks	2	2.17	1.86	0.11	-0.093	-0.01
Takeaways	2	1.2	1.35	0.11	0.591	0.065

6.0 + clip(Σ 0.429 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 6.644, then −0.2 cold shooting → 6.4

Pucker+160

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	2.333	1.229	1.898	0.32	0.607
Shots	3.333	1.342	2.483	0.08	0.199
Saves	0.333	0.653	0.51	0.15	0.077
Blocks	0.667	2.173	0.307	0.07	0.021
Takeaways	3	1.201	2.497	0.12	0.3
Passes	9.333	6.548	1.425	0.08	0.114
Faceoff win rate	0.667	0.5	1.333	0.03	0.04

Σ 1.358 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 1.597 → ×100 = 159.72 → 160

Offensive0.94

Period 1· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Period 2· 1.54

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.556	0.094	0.4	0.8
Shooting %	0.667	0.513	0.2	0.258
Assists per pass	0.111	0.091	0.4	0.487

Σ contribution = 1.545

Period 3· 1.03

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.083	0.094	0.4	0.353
Shooting %	0.333	0.513	0.2	0.133
Assists per pass	0.125	0.091	0.4	0.543

Σ contribution = 1.028

Defensive1.12

Period 1· 0.87

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.653	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	0	2.173	0.238	0.2	0.048
Takeaways	4	1.201	1.981	0.25	0.495
Goals conceded	2	2.073	1.036	0.25	0.259

Σ contribution = 0.874

Period 2· 1.04

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.653	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	0	2.173	0.238	0.2	0.048
Takeaways	3	1.201	1.905	0.25	0.476
Goals conceded	1	2.073	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.036

Period 3· 1.47

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	1	0.653	1.486	0.3	0.446
Blocks	2	2.173	0.921	0.2	0.184
Takeaways	2	1.201	1.582	0.25	0.395
Goals conceded	0	2.073	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.465

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.

oChase Vader Desperados

3 of 3 periods rated, then averaged. Baseline: the player's own division.

APR5.4

Period 1· 5.5

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	1	0.69	0.95	0.23	0.328	0.075
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	3	1.34	1.45	0.09	1.145	0.103
Passes	9	6.55	3.3	0.08	0.743	0.059
Saves	0	0.65	0.95	0.19	-0.686	-0.13
Blocks	0	2.17	1.86	0.11	-1.169	-0.129
Takeaways	3	1.2	1.35	0.11	1.332	0.147

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.009 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.987, then −0.3 turnovers, −0.2 cold shooting → 5.5

Period 2· 5.4

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	0	0.6	0.84	0.19	-0.708	-0.135
Shots	3	1.34	1.45	0.09	1.145	0.103
Passes	9	6.55	3.3	0.08	0.743	0.059
Saves	0	0.65	0.95	0.19	-0.686	-0.13
Blocks	1	2.17	1.86	0.11	-0.631	-0.069
Takeaways	2	1.2	1.35	0.11	0.591	0.065

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.274 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.589, then −0.2 cold shooting → 5.4

Period 3· 5.2

Stat	Value	League avg	Std dev	Weight	z	Contribution
Goals	0	0.69	0.95	0.23	-0.727	-0.167
Assists	1	0.6	0.84	0.19	0.48	0.091
Shots	3	1.34	1.45	0.09	1.145	0.103
Passes	3	6.55	3.3	0.08	-1.075	-0.086
Saves	0	0.65	0.95	0.19	-0.686	-0.13
Blocks	0	2.17	1.86	0.11	-1.169	-0.129
Takeaways	0	1.2	1.35	0.11	-0.89	-0.098

6.0 + clip(Σ −0.416 × 1.5, −3 to 3) = 5.376, then −0.2 cold shooting → 5.2

Pucker+69

Stat	Value	League rate	Ratio	Weight	Contribution
Goal contribution	0.667	1.229	0.542	0.32	0.174
Shots	3	1.342	2.235	0.08	0.179
Saves	0	0.653	0	0.15	0
Blocks	0.333	2.173	0.153	0.07	0.011
Takeaways	1.667	1.201	1.387	0.12	0.166
Passes	7	6.548	1.069	0.08	0.086
Faceoff win rate	1	0.5	2	0.03	0.06

Σ 0.675 ÷ Σ weights 0.85 = 0.794 − 0.101 turnover penalty = 0.693 → ×100 = 69.33 → 69

Offensive0.81

Period 1· 0.70

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.111	0.094	0.4	0.47
Shooting %	0.333	0.513	0.2	0.133
Assists per pass	0	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.698

Period 2· 0.24

Rate	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.094	0.4	0.095
Shooting %	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.091	0.4	0.095

Σ contribution = 0.238

Period 3· 1.50

Rate	Value	League	Weight	Contribution
Points per possession-sec	0.167	0.094	0.4	0.657
Shooting %	0	0.513	0.2	0.048
Assists per pass	0.333	0.091	0.4	0.796

Σ contribution = 1.501

Defensive0.83

Period 1· 0.85

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.653	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	0	2.173	0.238	0.2	0.048
Takeaways	3	1.201	1.905	0.25	0.476
Goals conceded	2	2.073	1.036	0.25	0.259

Σ contribution = 0.855

Period 2· 1.01

Stat	Value	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0	0.653	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	1	2.173	0.507	0.2	0.101
Takeaways	2	1.201	1.582	0.25	0.395
Goals conceded	1	2.073	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 1.008

Period 3· 0.62

Stat	League rate	d(ratio)	Weight	Contribution
Saves	0.653	0.238	0.3	0.072
Blocks	2.173	0.238	0.2	0.048
Takeaways	1.201	0.238	0.25	0.06
Goals conceded	2.073	1.762	0.25	0.44

Σ contribution = 0.62

League average is 6.0 on APR, 1.0 on Offensive and Defensive, and 100 on Pucker+. Every formula.